BPX024: Time to Say Goodbye

[Neon Ignition]

I've been reading a thread on Era that follows a typical pattern carried over from Gaf whereby they often expect companies to sneeze out the generation at the drop of a hat simply because they're unable to accept that the industry has been steam rolling away from 5 year cycles for a long time now.

At where we are currently positioned this year does indeed take us to the five year life cycle of old however of the three companies contesting for our money all three are at critical points in their systems existence.

For Nintendo it could be argued that despite the lowered powered system they are the only next-gen system already on the market. They're still in their birth year for the huge success that is the Switch as well so they're effectively out of the discussion at the first breath.

Microsoft released the expensive Xbox One X a mere three months ago bringing as cutting edge a console to market as the retail space and consumers could stretch to.

Sony technically has the oldest hardware on the market now with the Pro now on its way to being 18 months old in a few more short months however they remain the single most successful platform this generation as they race a breakneck speed towards the fabled 100m mark.

Despite this some expect the PS5 to kickstart the next gen race next year, 2019.

Basically, how do you see the rest of this generation panning out and on what timescale?

[wakka]

I'll take a stab and say we'll see new machines in 2021 - an 8 year lifetime for PS4 and Bone. I think between now and then we'll see a revised Switch, and see the Pro and One X supersede the Slim/S units entirely. I imagine we'll also see a slim version of the Pro - possibly a slim One X, although it's pretty dinky already, so perhaps not.

No way we'll see a PS5 next year, IMO.

[Junko]

I expect a PS5 announcement in 2019 for a 2020 release

[Cepp]

Has it really been 5 years? This gen feels like it's only just started to pick up steam for me.

I was expecting several more years before any announcements tbh.

[Mayhem]

Has it really been 5 years? This gen feels like it's only just started to pick up steam for me.

Exactly, why I think it will continue for a few years yet!

[Neon Ignition]

Personally, I feel like the next gen of machines going to be the oddest one yet.

Nintendo's success with Switch will have encouraged them to continue down their own track so they only need to revise Switch when sales take a dip, they could theoretically forego replacing it as a format forever if they can maintain momentum and get users upgrading when updated versions emerge. The 3DS turns 7 this year and the last 12 months showed a sales upswing so it's possible they could get 10yrs minimum without a significant grunt improvement.

Microsoft is probably the wildest card on the table. They've learnt a lot and yet their ambitions still seem tempted by the old plan, in any other circumstance I'd expect them to continue with the iterations model but the Xbox One brand is undoubtedly tainted and will never gain enough momentum to gain the traction they need. I could see them passing off an Xbox One X2 that is that very iterative system but referred to as a fresh brand and fresh start but for MS to succeed I feel they have to evidence a level of investment in gaming that they're nowhere near yet. I could imagine their next machine will simply be called Xbox in the hope of it being the last platform launch they need to do before return to iteration and service based releases but they need to improve internal software output ten fold, release a system more powerful than Sony at the same or lower priced and before them with immense marketing. Basically, an MS we don't currently see.

Sony, well, they're kind of the measure here. They're the only one to have explicitly committed to a fresh generation and they've essentially got most of the say as to when it kick starts with little to no reason to announce a new system. If PS4 continues to sell this year as much as it did last year then I think there's little to no chance of a 2019 reveal for PS5, it'd be daft to pursue potential sales instead of guaranteed sales especially when they're still riding such positive public opinion. I imagine insider news will be rife though. At the earliest we may get another April/May reveal ahead of a same year November 2020 release.

I think the biggest issue both formats face though is the technology. The tech simply doesn't move fast enough anymore and by the time 2020 arrives it won't have been long enough past Pro and XBX to significantly impress making high end premiums a hard sell. Part of that will also be why Pro and XBX themselves have merely done okay with the Slim models far, far outstripping them. Basically, everything about the PS3/360>PS4/XBX transition suggests it'd be better for both companies to hold off.

So, in short, I'm willing to consider 2020 as possible but I feel both companies delaying it to 2021/2022 and relying on the reveal of Super Slims as being just as likely

[wakka]

Yah, as you say SF, the tech is just too slow moving now for a 2019 PS5 to be a particularly significant upgrade over what's currently available. And as others said, this gen only felt like it got properly going in the last 18 months. We still haven't seen a single Rockstar game!

[S3M]

I'll go with 2021, but I still think it need more time, only just got a PS4 myself as others have said it's been a slow generation with little more than shiny looking Xbox360 and PS3 games. One good point is many studios aren't chasing the best graphics dream and we are seeing a lot more low budget stylised games. All the AAA games this gen have largely been garbage and reruns of previous stuff, the indie titles haves been far better and more interesting.

[_SD_]

It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Switch, or some iteration of, still kicking in 2025.

As far as I understood, Microsoft aren’t happy with the performance of the Xbox division overall? They should just sell it to Google and be done with it.

The problem was dropping new 1080p consoles just as 4K screens were hitting the consumer market. The mid-generation update was required just to bring both systems up to spec, and even then you’re left with a choice of fake-4K or pay 100 quid more for slightly-less-fake-4K.

[Digfox]

My guess would be 2020, although we may hear about it next year. Probably an iterative upgrade with AMD Zen-class CPU, faster/more RAM and better GPU.

At some point PS4 sales will drop off and I think Sony would love to time new hardware for that point. I therefore don't believe this generation will be as long as the last one. Particularly as there aren't the same issues with ROI. I think Sony understand how new hardware will help to keep increasing their massive PSN profits this generation. My answer is probably influenced given this is what a lot of professional analysts have said already.

[JazzFunk]

I'm feeling it will be a gradual, constipated jump to VR, but the home tech will probly take about five years to get good enough, then society will be knackered.

Xbox One and PS4 will just stick around in further-enhanced versions to sell 4K tellies.

[JazzFunk]

I've already set up Knob-Tech Industries (TM) as a Kickstarter, we deal in knobbly VR attachments for knobbly bits for people with knobbly souls (and faces).

Buy the shares, we ballin' on Wall Street.

[Neon Ignition]

It's also going to be affected by the price of components which will need to fall in practically freefall speeds to make a new, worthy gen of consoles market viable within 18-24 months. PS5 has to launch by November 2020 or it'll be a longer gen than last gen by default.

By that measure, I'm assuming the next consoles will spitball GTX1080 levels whilst PCs will have moved on a bit further

[CMcK]

I doubt we'll see a round of next gen systems until 7nm manufacturing for the CPU/GPU/APU is mature enough for good yields. The last gen was long and didn't seem to harm the platform holders profits. With development cycles for games getting longer we're still a good way from seeing the One and PS4 maxed out. The refresh consoles could actually end up extending this generation somewhat as well.

[Colin]

This gen is a piss take, I’m past caring and buy very few modern games these days, maybe a couple a year. Things like the PS4 Pro and One X can do one, I’m not going to ‘upgrade’ a home console just the same as I don’t feel the need to buy into every incremental step up on my phone. Once that becomes fully acceptable to the public, what’s the point in console gaming any more over PC gaming? At least PC gaming is honest in what it is as regards specs. Utter bollocks. I might just skip next gen altogether, so this one can go on as long as it wants for me, my PS4’s primary use is on demand TV.