PTE24: One System to Rule Them All

[Neon Ignition]

We're approaching a new generation of home systems and a new 'console war' will begin.

At the moment there's a lot we don't know about the new line of systems. Sony and Microsoft are yet to officially reveal their consoles with only some PC based demo's to gauge likely power capabilities off and Nintendo seems to be announcing as little as possible for their post-launch WiiU plans. Our main source of info for judging is past experience with the Big 3.

Each gen there's usually a surprise of a shake up. Last gen it was the runaway success of the Wii as Nintendo reversed its fortunes, the generation before was the eventual hardware death of Sega and the dent MS put in the market shares, before that Sony coming out of nowhere to change the industry with the PS1.

Which of the Big 3 do you think will be the 'winner' of the next-gen console sales race?

[CMcK]

Nintendo will win in terms of profits. MS will win the market share battle for home consoles. But iOS will walk all over the lot of them.

[Brad]

We need to define 'winner'. Who won this round? By sales of hardware it's Nintendo. By attach rate it's Microsoft. Historically speaking though we can't even say yet because Sony will keep the PS3 alive for another 4 years or so.

[Neon Ignition]

I'd say on the basis that the launch of a new generation is a line drawn in the sand between generations, judging it off sales.

For one, it looks like Nintendo has learnt nothing. As much as they've sold, I wouldn't have been surprised to see the Wii outsell the PS2's tally if they hadn't have become lazy.

[Kaido]

In light of Steam's progress in cheap, configurable and downloadable content and kickstarter, I wouldn't be surprised if PC gaming builds up enough momentum to steam roller next generations offerings if there is nothing substantially different on the consoles. I'm already playing more games on the PC than the 3 current gen consoles.

720p gave last generation a much needed boost, I don't know if there is anything that substantial this time around...?

Personally I most used the X360 due to online match making, early exclusives, extensive game library this gen

[Neon Ignition]

Personally, whilst Steam etc has done a lot to ease PC gaming and works well in of itself (and will no doubt continue to do so), PC's still lack a unified focus to push itself on the masses so I expect it to continue much as it already does. Great for those who use it, but largely silent and unnoticed.

I think Nintendo is going to get a healthy dose of carry over user base from the Wii once they manage to find a way of making it clear the Wii U is a new system to the masses. However, I don't think they'll repeat this gens runaway successes and will settle in 2nd or 3rd place whilst still selling decent thanks to the 'evergreen' series.

MS is, for me the wildcard next gen. It feels like much rests on which direction they take. If they aim to repeat this gen's approach they have enough good will to do well, likely similar numbers. If they focus on Kinect2 as the future direction then I think they'll hit a brick wall by the end of the second year and begin to trail, even if it works flawlessly, I don't see Kinect as the future of gaming and the gimmick is getting stale already.

Sony, I think has a reasonable chance of getting a narrow win next gen, they seem to be the company which is most focused on the core established setup. There's the risk of over pricing again from them but whilst the system could be a fairly dull announcement (more power but same controller, set up etc) people will see a straight forward purchase. Plus, they have a decent exclusives portfolio to build on against MS's much withered portfolio.

Either way, I'm not expecting a single format to race away with things. Chances are, different regions will continue to be fragmented as to what they like: Japan-Nintendo, US-MS, EU-Sony

As for things like iOS, I expect them to continue to be talked about despite having little relevance on proceedings.

[Brad]

Once Valve publish figures saying 1 million people played Borderlands 2 using big screen mode and used a pad to play it (no Idea if that's true but hopefully you get the point) publishers will want their games to fully support big screen mode and when that happens more people will use it etc. then we can have the SteamBox and everyone will be happy. Valve can have a Featured section for Big Screen certified games etc. to get the devs on board.

[CMcK]

All of the above companies exist to make a profit. That is how you measure who has won the console war. A good attach rate and hee haw profit is not good buisness.
And like it or not iOS, and to a lesser extent Android, devices are competing with traditional gaming systems. People only have a finite amount of disposable income and will chose carefully where to spend it. Games are the largest part of the various app stores and people like the idea of spending money on a device like a phone which will be used every day rather than a console which may be used a few times a week.
The hardware in these phones, tablets etc is evolving quickly and it is arguably at the point where the visuals are good enough for most people. Plus cheap content is a major draw as well.

[nakamura]

Whoever has the next generation of Fifa/PES/CoD will do well. Millions of people only play those games.

[CMcK]

Do you think anyone has the balls to try to secure all of those franchises? Would cost a silly amount of money but would potentially yield a huge return in the long term.
Timed exclusives and first dibs on DLC isn't cutting it.

[Kit]

I can see Kinect 2 securing the top spot for Microsoft next gen.